美国打击委内瑞拉后预测市场热度升温

Group 1 - The article discusses the growing interest in betting on geopolitical events, particularly in relation to the potential actions of the U.S. government under Trump's administration [1] - A mysterious trader made a significant profit of over $400,000 by accurately betting on Maduro losing his leadership in Venezuela, prompting the introduction of new contracts on the Polymarket platform [1] - The probability of Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei being ousted by June 30 has risen to 36%, up from below 20% prior to U.S. actions against Venezuela [1] Group 2 - There is an increasing focus on war-related contracts on prediction platforms, which exist in a legal and ethical gray area, as investors reassess geopolitical risks [1] - The likelihood of Trump "securing" Greenland by the end of the year remains low but is showing an upward trend [1]