李迅雷：央行将抛售还是增持黄金？我最想贴这张图

Group 1 - Central banks have increased their gold reserves for only 17 out of the past 60 years, and this trend is expected to continue, although gold prices may not always rise in tandem with central bank purchases [1][16] - The primary drivers for gold investment are its value preservation and safe-haven attributes, with the former being the main reason for price increases and the latter being significant due to geopolitical tensions and potential conflicts [1][15] - The total amount of gold held by global central banks has decreased from 1.225 billion ounces in 1964 to an estimated 1.166 billion ounces in 2024, despite significant monetary expansion during the same period [3][6] Group 2 - The price of gold has increased dramatically, from $35 per ounce in 1964 to approximately $2,639 per ounce by the end of 2024, representing a nearly 75-fold increase, while the broad money supply (M2) has grown by 159 times during the same period [3][6] - As of the end of 2024, the market value of central bank gold reserves exceeds $3 trillion, but this still represents a low percentage of global broad money, increasing from 4.3% in 1964 to only 1.9% in 2024 [6][9] - The decrease in gold reserves among central banks is attributed to a significant increase in foreign exchange reserves, particularly in U.S. dollars, which rose from 31% of total reserves in 1960 to 77% in 2024 [9][12] Group 3 - Since 2025, the U.S. dollar index has weakened due to the continuous expansion of U.S. debt, leading central banks to increase their gold reserves as a hedge against concerns over U.S. debt creditworthiness [12][15] - The global gold stock has increased by approximately 1.5 times over the past 60 years due to advancements in mining technology, yet central banks only hold about 17.5% of this total, indicating a significant gap in potential gold reserves [12][15] - The article concludes that to enhance the international status of the Chinese yuan, it is essential to optimize the central bank's reserve structure by reducing holdings in U.S. and Japanese bonds while increasing gold reserves [15][16]