热搜第一！镍价狂涨30%后急刹车，印尼控产博弈下谁在狂欢谁在承压？

Core Viewpoint - The recent volatility in nickel prices, characterized by a sharp rise followed by a significant decline, is driven by a combination of policy expectations and fundamental market realities [1][2]. Group 1: Price Movements and Market Dynamics - Nickel prices surged due to Indonesia's substantial reduction in nickel ore quotas, decreasing from 379 million tons to 250 million tons, a 34% drop, alongside Vale Indonesia's mining operation suspensions [1]. - In a span of three weeks, nickel prices increased by over 36,000 yuan, exceeding 30% [1]. - The London Metal Exchange (LME) nickel inventory rose by 20,000 tons, reaching a peak of 275,600 tons, indicating a supply surplus [1][2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Factors - The demand for nickel in the new energy battery sector grew less than expected, at under 8%, while stainless steel procurement remained sluggish due to slow real estate recovery [1]. - High inventory levels are projected to persist, with ING estimating a global nickel surplus of 261,000 tons by 2026, contrasting sharply with the optimistic supply tightening expectations from Indonesia [2]. Group 3: Industry Impact and Profitability - Upstream nickel mining and smelting companies benefited from the price surge, with companies like Huayou Cobalt seeing significant profit increases from rising nickel prices [2][3]. - Midstream processing companies face challenges in cost transmission, while downstream stainless steel and battery manufacturers are caught in a dilemma regarding pricing strategies, which could further suppress nickel demand [3]. Group 4: Future Outlook and Investment Strategies - The nickel market is expected to enter a phase of consolidation, with 140,000 yuan per ton identified as a critical support level [3]. - The future price trajectory hinges on the enforcement of Indonesia's production quota policy, with potential supply gaps of 10 to 20 million tons if strictly adhered to [3]. - Investors are advised to shift focus from policy expectations to fundamental realities, monitoring the execution of Indonesia's quota policy and global nickel inventory trends [4].