本周环渤海动力煤价格指数延续跌势

Core Viewpoint - The Qinhuangdao coal price index for thermal coal in the Bohai Rim region has decreased to 685 yuan per ton, down by 8 yuan from the previous period, influenced by seasonal demand fluctuations and supply chain dynamics [1] Supply Side - Coal mines that were temporarily shut down before the holiday have resumed normal production and sales, but high port inventories, price inversions, and uncertain logistics policies have slowed the flow of coal from production areas to ports [1] - The average daily transport volume on the Daqin line was only 910,000 tons during this period, indicating a significant slowdown in coal supply [1] - Despite the tight supply of some low-calorie quality coal, the overall supply remains insufficient, leading to continued inventory depletion at ports [1] Demand Side - The New Year holiday coincided with higher-than-usual temperatures across many regions, causing daily coal consumption in eight coastal provinces to drop below 2 million tons [1] - Post-holiday, daily consumption quickly increased due to colder weather and the resumption of business operations, but the overall demand has not shown significant improvement [1] - The stability of long-term contracts and the influx of imported coal have prevented a noticeable supply-demand gap, maintaining a steady pace of procurement from downstream buyers [1] Market Outlook - The current coastal market for spot prices is showing a slight upward trend, primarily due to tightening supply, which has led to a rebound in market sentiment [1] - However, the lack of substantial improvement in actual demand means that the factors supporting continued price increases remain weak [1] - Until effective inventory reduction occurs across the entire supply chain, the transaction dynamics between upstream and downstream will likely remain in a stalemate [1]