【2026年汇市展望】以破“7”收官2025 2026年人民币汇率将何去何从？

Core Viewpoint - The RMB exchange rate experienced significant appreciation in 2025, influenced by various factors including tariff expectations, fluctuations in the USD, and improvements in the domestic environment, with the onshore and offshore RMB appreciating approximately 4.27% and 4.93% respectively [1][2]. Group 1: RMB Exchange Rate Performance - In 2025, the RMB exchange rate reached its highest levels since May 2023, closing at 6.9879 for onshore and 6.9697 for offshore RMB against the USD [2]. - The year can be divided into two phases: the first phase saw a depreciation of the RMB due to rising global tariff risks, while the second phase experienced a gradual appreciation as external economic conditions improved [2][3]. - The RMB's appreciation was supported by a resilient export performance, with trade surplus exceeding $1 trillion for the first time in 2025 [3][4]. Group 2: External and Internal Factors - The depreciation of the USD was driven by various factors including the Federal Reserve's shift to a loose monetary policy and high fiscal deficits, leading to a cumulative decline of approximately 9.37% for the year [3][5]. - The internal economic resilience, particularly in exports, played a crucial role in supporting the RMB's appreciation, with significant inflows of foreign capital into the domestic market [3][4]. - The stable exchange rate policies implemented by the government helped to smooth fluctuations and maintain market expectations [3][4]. Group 3: Outlook for 2026 - Moving into 2026, the RMB is expected to continue a trend of gradual appreciation against the USD, influenced by the USD's potential depreciation and narrowing interest rate differentials between China and the US [6][7]. - The external economic environment is anticipated to remain favorable, with the RMB's asset attractiveness likely to draw in cross-border capital flows [7][8]. - However, there are cautions regarding the potential for rapid appreciation and the need for risk management strategies among enterprises and financial institutions [9].