智通财经网·2026-01-08 05:57Core Viewpoint - The aviation industry in China is expected to continue its recovery, with significant improvements in demand and a potential turnaround in profitability by 2025, driven by a strong rebound in passenger traffic and strategic pricing adjustments [2][5]. Group 1: Short-term Outlook - The upcoming New Year holiday is anticipated to see robust air travel demand, with significant increases in both volume and pricing compared to previous years [4]. - The Spring Festival travel peak is expected to maintain active business and personal travel, although the holiday's impact may be weaker than in previous years [4]. Group 2: Demand and Supply Dynamics - Passenger traffic is projected to grow by 5-6% in 2025, with domestic routes increasing by 4% and international routes by over 20% [2]. - The industry is entering a low growth phase in supply, with a projected fleet size increase of approximately 3.7% by November 2025 compared to the end of 2024 [2]. Group 3: Performance Metrics - The passenger load factor is expected to reach a historical high, with a year-on-year increase of 1.7 percentage points, while ticket prices remain at historically low levels [2]. - Domestic ticket prices are estimated to decrease by 2-3% year-on-year, while international ticket prices may see significant increases in the latter half of the year due to strong inbound demand [2]. Group 4: Quarterly Performance Expectations - In Q1, passenger traffic is expected to reach new highs due to strong personal demand, but ticket prices may decline by about 10% year-on-year, limiting profitability improvements [3]. - Q2 is projected to see significant reductions in losses due to active business travel and favorable supply-demand conditions [3]. - Q3 may experience weaker business demand, impacting profitability despite a slight increase in ticket prices driven by recovering demand from September [3]. - Q4 is expected to continue the trend of significant loss reduction, supported by strong holiday travel and stable load factors [3]. Group 5: Long-term Outlook - The Chinese aviation industry is anticipated to enter a "super cycle," with sustainable growth in demand and a recovery in pricing and profitability expected to begin in 2026 [5]. - The market has achieved price liberalization, and the focus on improving network quality will be crucial for traditional airlines' future profitability [5].