【财经分析】通胀低于预期 澳大利亚央行2月加息仍可能

Core Viewpoint - Australia's inflation is projected to remain above the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) target range of 2% to 3% until late 2027, despite a slight decrease in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in November 2025 [1][2]. Group 1: Inflation Data and Predictions - The overall CPI in Australia increased by 3.4% year-on-year in November, down from 3.8% in October, and below market expectations [1]. - The trimmed mean inflation rate also fell slightly from 3.3% to 3.2%, aligning with market expectations [1]. - The RBA's forecast indicates that the overall inflation rate will remain above 3% for most of 2026, with the trimmed mean inflation rate expected to stay above the target range until the second half of 2026 [2]. Group 2: Interest Rate Outlook - The RBA has initiated a rate cut cycle in 2025, reducing the cash rate to 3.6%, the lowest level since early 2023 [2]. - Market expectations regarding interest rate changes are mixed, with some economists predicting rate hikes in February 2026, while others anticipate no changes [2][3]. - Following the release of inflation data, the probability of a rate hike in February decreased from 37% to 32%, indicating a cooling of rate hike expectations [3]. Group 3: Economic Commentary - Economists express concerns that inflation pressures may prompt the RBA to raise rates in February, with some suggesting a potential increase of 40 basis points [3][4]. - Analysts from various banks have differing views on the likelihood of a rate hike, with some predicting that the RBA will maintain the current rate due to weak inflation momentum [5][4]. - The Australian economy is described as operating near full capacity, with a tight labor market, which may necessitate a cautious adjustment in monetary policy [4].