PX-PTA-MEG：地缘事件频发，关注成本扰动

Group 1: PX/PTA Market Overview - The current polyester market is primarily trading on the expectation of tight supply for PX and PTA in the first half of 2026, with the main contracts for PX and PTA having a longer time until expiration, making the bullish logic temporarily unrefutable [1] - The geopolitical events in the Middle East are causing signs of oil price stabilization, which supports chemical products, thus maintaining a long-term bullish outlook for PX and PTA [1][2] - Short-term feedback from the polyester industry chain indicates a negative response to the rising raw material prices of PX and PTA, necessitating adjustments in trading positions [1] Group 2: Cost and Supply Dynamics - The geopolitical situation in Iran poses a risk of further escalation, leading to a bullish outlook on oil prices, while the impact of the U.S. capturing Venezuelan President Maduro on oil prices is limited [2] - Domestic PX production is expected to decrease due to maintenance plans at Zhejiang Petrochemical, while overseas facilities are also undergoing maintenance, leading to a tightening supply outlook for PX [2][23] - PTA processing fees have significantly increased, while downstream profits have sharply declined, indicating a competitive struggle for profits between upstream and downstream sectors [2][9] Group 3: Demand and Inventory Trends - Demand is entering a seasonal downturn, with textile companies experiencing a decline in orders and an increase in finished product inventory, leading to a rise in polyester factory maintenance [3][60] - The overall inventory of PTA is decreasing, with a notable drop in warehouse receipts, indicating a tightening supply situation [44][39] - Polyester factory inventory levels are increasing, with raw material stocking days showing a slight rise, reflecting a cautious approach to inventory management amid declining demand [63][65] Group 4: Price and Profitability Insights - The price of PX has seen a slight decline, with the CFR Taiwan price at $893 per ton, down $25 from the previous week [8] - PTA processing margins have improved significantly, with average processing fees exceeding 300 yuan per ton, indicating a recovery in profitability for PTA producers [16] - MEG prices are expected to stabilize due to geopolitical influences, with a slight increase in production capacity utilization rates observed [50][48]