长城基金曲少杰：港股有色行情有望延续

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market's non-ferrous metal sector is experiencing a collective rise, with expectations for this trend to continue due to a favorable global environment for the industry [1][4]. Short-term Analysis - The resource, electricity, and non-ferrous metal sectors are benefiting from supply shortages under the "anti-involution" logic, as indicated by recent government documents highlighting the impact of "involution" on profit margins and sustainable development [1][4]. - The government has proposed three measures: 1. Establishing production capacity ceilings for major metals like copper, lead, and zinc to control new capacity [1][4]. 2. Merging and restructuring strategic metals to enhance industry concentration and control over the supply chain [1][4]. 3. Encouraging companies to shift towards personalized, high-value-added products while maintaining competition in deep processing industries [1][4]. Mid-term Outlook - Factors such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut plans, market supply-demand imbalances, and advancements in electricity infrastructure are expected to positively influence the industry [1][4]. Long-term Perspective - The development of artificial intelligence (AI) relies heavily on computing power, with major countries like the U.S. and China increasing investments in computing centers. However, electricity shortages are limiting the growth of the AI industry [1][4]. - The demand for energy, electricity, and metals driven by AI computing centers has surpassed traditional supply-demand logic, intensifying electricity supply constraints and significantly increasing market demand for oil, gas, copper, and aluminum [1][4]. Future Trends - By 2026, the resource and non-ferrous metal sectors are expected to continue experiencing supply shortages, rising demand, stable prices, and profits concentrating upstream [2][5].