2026年中国经济怎么走？

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes that the growth momentum and recovery quality of China's economy in 2026 largely depend on the resolution of existing structural issues and the effectiveness of related policies [2][27][30] - In 2026, China's economy is expected to grow steadily, with a predicted growth rate of around 4.5%-5%, driven by policy support, structural transformation, and deep reforms [27][28][39] - The focus for 2026 will be on expanding domestic demand, fostering new growth drivers through innovation and green development, stabilizing the real estate market, and addressing local government debt [27][30][39] Group 2 - In 2025, China's economy demonstrated resilience despite external pressures, with significant advancements in technology and high-tech manufacturing, which saw a value-added growth of 9.2% [27][28][30] - The export sector showed strong resilience, with a total trade value of 41.21 trillion yuan, marking a 3.6% year-on-year increase [28][29] - The capital market in China rebounded significantly in 2025, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 18.3%, indicating a recovery in investor confidence [28][29] Group 3 - Structural imbalances in the economy, such as the disparity between supply and demand, and the imbalance between external and internal demand, remain critical issues [29][30] - The low inflation environment, with CPI growth fluctuating between -0.7% and 0.7%, poses challenges for consumer spending and overall economic sentiment [31][34] - Experts suggest that addressing these structural issues will be crucial for achieving high-quality economic growth in the coming years [30][39] Group 4 - The manufacturing sector is expected to be a major highlight in 2026, with an anticipated investment growth of 5% driven by long-term policy mechanisms and high-tech industry growth [39][40] - The construction and infrastructure investment is projected to grow moderately at around 3%, balancing debt resolution and development needs [38][39] - The service sector is expected to see enhanced growth, particularly in personalized and self-care consumption, supported by favorable policies [33][34]