Bitcoin Giant Strategy's 'Premium' Nearly Vanished Last Year—Analysts Expect a Comeback

Core Viewpoint - Analysts at Bernstein predict that the company's growth will recover alongside Bitcoin's price, which is expected to rise significantly in the coming years [1]. Group 1: Company Valuation and Performance - The company is currently valued at a slight premium to its digital asset holdings, which is anticipated to increase as investor confidence grows [1]. - Historically, the company has been valued at a multiple-to-net asset value (mNAV) of 1.57, but this has recently declined to 1.02 [2][3]. - The company's stock price fell over 6% to approximately $154, with shares dropping more than 50% last year despite reaching a high of $457 [5]. Group 2: Bitcoin Holdings and Financial Strategy - The company has utilized various types of preferred stock to fund Bitcoin purchases, raising concerns about its ability to make dividend payments as Bitcoin's price fell by 23% in the previous quarter [4]. - Bernstein analysts believe the company will benefit significantly from a recovery in Bitcoin's price, which they predict could reach as high as $150,000 by 2026 [5]. - The company disclosed a $17.44 billion unrealized loss in the fourth quarter, indicating a decline in the value of its Bitcoin holdings [6]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Market Sentiment - The company has established a $2.25 billion "USD Reserve" to pre-pay dividends, which some analysts view as a prudent measure [7]. - There is a 17% chance that the company will sell Bitcoin this year, according to traders on a prediction market [7]. - Bernstein maintains an "Overweight" rating for the company with a price target of $450 [6].