AI算力与存储需求爆表 芯片产能扩张启幕! 半导体设备喜迎新一轮牛市

Core Viewpoint - Citigroup's recent report highlights that semiconductor equipment manufacturers, particularly ASML, Lam Research, and Applied Materials, are poised to benefit significantly from the surge in AI chip and storage chip production capacity amid a global AI infrastructure buildout and a "supercycle" in storage chips [1] Semiconductor Equipment Market Outlook - The global semiconductor equipment sector is expected to enter a "Phase 2 bull market," with predictions of a new bull market trajectory following a super bull market in 2024-2025 [1] - Citigroup forecasts the global wafer fab equipment (WFE) market to reach approximately $115 billion in 2026, representing a 10% year-over-year increase, significantly above the average growth rate of the past decade [5] - The three major chip manufacturers—TSMC, Samsung, and Intel—are anticipated to increase their capital expenditures (capex) significantly, aligning with the optimistic projections for the semiconductor equipment market [1][5] Stock Performance - The semiconductor equipment sector has shown strong performance in the stock market, with ASML's ADR reaching a historical high with a 16% increase since the beginning of 2026, and Lam Research and Applied Materials also experiencing significant stock price increases of 20% and 15%, respectively [2] - Micron Technology has raised its 2026 fiscal year capex from $18 billion to $20 billion, indicating a substantial year-over-year growth of 45%, which may prompt competitors like SK Hynix and Samsung to follow suit [2] AI Chip Demand and Capacity Expansion - The demand for AI chips, particularly from leading companies like NVIDIA, AMD, and Broadcom, is driving expectations for robust capacity expansion at TSMC, which is struggling to meet the "endless orders" for AI computing and storage [3] - The launch of Google's Gemini3 AI application has significantly increased AI computing demand, further validating the ongoing infrastructure buildout in the AI sector [3] Long-term Investment Trends - Major tech companies like Microsoft, Google, and Meta are accelerating the construction of large-scale AI data centers, which is expected to drive the expansion of advanced process AI chips and storage capacities [4] - The overall investment wave in AI infrastructure is projected to reach $3 trillion to $4 trillion by 2030, indicating that the current phase is just the beginning [4] Equipment Demand Dynamics - The demand for semiconductor equipment is expected to be more resilient than in previous cycles, driven by the increasing complexity of chip manufacturing processes and the rising demand for advanced storage solutions [6] - Citigroup's model predicts significant growth in NAND (+30%), DRAM (+12%), and Foundry/Logic (+10%) segments, indicating a balanced expansion across various semiconductor sectors [6] Future Projections - The global semiconductor market is projected to grow by 22.5% in 2025, reaching $772.2 billion, and is expected to expand further to $975.5 billion in 2026, marking a 26% year-over-year increase [7] - The growth will be primarily driven by the strong performance of AI GPUs and storage systems, particularly HBM and enterprise SSDs, as demand for AI inference systems and cloud infrastructure continues to rise [10] Equipment Sector Insights - The "Phase 2 upcycle" indicates a shift from valuation recovery to sustained profit upgrades, with leading semiconductor equipment companies expected to experience greater earnings elasticity than revenue elasticity [11] - ASML, Lam Research, and Applied Materials are positioned to benefit from the AI infrastructure boom and the storage supercycle, covering critical segments such as lithography, etching, deposition, and advanced packaging [11][12]