汽车行业2026十大趋势：国央企整车企业迎来发展机遇、具身智能进入量产前夜

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese automotive industry is at a critical juncture in the transition towards electric and intelligent vehicles, with three distinct industry curves coexisting: traditional fuel vehicles, electric intelligent vehicles, and future industries represented by autonomous driving. The year 2026 is anticipated to be a pivotal turning point for the industry, characterized by structural transformation driven by policy, market growth, technological breakthroughs, and global competition [1]. Group 1: Trends in the Automotive Industry - Trend 1: The "old-for-new" policy is expected to become a normalized tool, addressing the growing gap in vehicle replacement as the annual scrappage rate remains significantly lower than new car sales. This policy is projected to enhance market demand and support steady domestic consumption and industrial production [2]. - Trend 2: New automotive players are driving an upgrade in export structure, with Chinese automotive exports experiencing significant growth, becoming a "second growth curve." These companies are shifting from single vehicle exports to localized production, enhancing China's brand value and technological image in the global market [3]. - Trend 3: A clear differentiation is emerging between "mass-market pure electric" and "high-end range-extended" vehicles, with structural changes in market demand as the penetration rate of new energy vehicles exceeds 50%. The mainstream configuration for high-end SUVs/MPVs remains "large battery long-range range-extended" [4]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Competitive Landscape - Trend 4: The industry is transitioning to a "late-stage mass market," where consumers prioritize brand reputation, after-sales support, and residual value certainty. Resources are increasingly consolidating around leading technology firms, enhancing conversion efficiency in mainstream price segments [5]. - Trend 5: State-owned enterprises are poised for growth opportunities as regulatory bodies strengthen the assessment of their new energy businesses, driving resources towards electric intelligence. These enterprises hold advantages in manufacturing systems and compliance, particularly in the realm of conditional autonomous driving [6]. - Trend 6: The penetration of new energy commercial vehicles is accelerating, with heavy-duty and light-duty trucks entering a rapid growth phase. The total cost of ownership for heavy trucks is now within a 1.5-2 year recovery period, while urban electric vehicle infrastructure is fully mature [7]. Group 3: Technological Advancements and Future Prospects - Trend 7: High-perception intelligent cockpit configurations are reshaping purchasing decisions, with smart features becoming a core competitive differentiator. The integration of advanced displays and intelligent seating systems is driving a new wave of competition in the market [8]. - Trend 8: Intelligent driving architecture is transitioning to an "end-to-end" model, enhancing the integration of perception and decision-making processes. The "equalization of intelligent driving" is facilitating advanced driving assistance features in lower-priced models [9][10]. - Trend 9: Three major commercial scenarios for autonomous driving are on the verge of mass production, including Robotaxi, mining autonomous vehicles, and unmanned logistics vehicles, with significant cost reductions and operational efficiencies being realized [11]. - Trend 10: Embodied intelligence is approaching mass production, with humanoid robots transitioning to dual-core intelligence. The automotive industry is well-suited for this technology due to the high degree of technical reuse, with several manufacturers planning to launch production in 2025 [12]. Overall, the Chinese automotive industry is expected to exhibit characteristics of multiple technological pathways, market structure differentiation, and accelerated intelligence implementation, supported by policy guidance and technological innovation, leading to high-quality development [13].