债市日报：1月8日

Market Overview - The bond market showed significant recovery on January 8, with futures and cash bonds strengthening in the afternoon, leading to a rise in government bond futures across the board [1] - The interbank cash bond yield decreased by approximately 2 basis points, while the central bank conducted a net injection of 9.9 billion yuan in the open market [1] Bond Futures Performance - Government bond futures closed higher, with the 30-year main contract rising by 0.37% to 111.00, the 10-year main contract up by 0.15% to 107.79, and the 5-year main contract increasing by 0.09% to 105.60 [2] - The China Convertible Bond Index rose by 0.39% to 509.26 points, with notable gains in several convertible bonds [2] International Bond Market - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields showed mixed results, with the 2-year yield increasing by 1.45 basis points to 3.470% and the 10-year yield decreasing by 2.16 basis points to 4.147% [3] - In Asia, Japanese bond yields fell significantly, with the 10-year yield down by 5.1 basis points to 2.07% [3] - In the Eurozone, yields on various government bonds also decreased, with the 10-year French bond yield down by 3.1 basis points to 3.520% [3] Primary Market Activity - The Export-Import Bank issued financial bonds with yields below market estimates, with the 1.2521-year and 5.5041-year bonds yielding 1.4444% and 1.7827%, respectively [4] - The China Development Bank's 3-year and 7-year financial bonds had yields of 1.6783% and 1.94%, respectively, indicating strong demand [4] Liquidity Conditions - The central bank announced a 99 billion yuan reverse repo operation at a fixed rate of 1.40%, with no reverse repos maturing on that day [5] - Short-term funding rates in the Shibor market mostly increased, with the overnight rate rising by 0.4 basis points to 1.27% [5] Institutional Insights - Guotai Junan Fund emphasized the importance of pure bond funds focusing on stable long-term returns and the transformation of "fixed income +" funds to attract more aggressive capital [6] - CITIC Securities projected that China would remain in a low-interest-rate environment through 2026, with potential downward pressure on long-term bond yields as economic recovery progresses [6] - Shenwan Hongyuan suggested that monetary policy would likely remain generous in 2026, with expectations of 1-2 reserve requirement ratio cuts and one interest rate cut during the year [6]