近30年来首次，黄金或已超越美债 成全球头号储备资产

Core Insights - Gold has surpassed U.S. Treasury bonds to become the largest reserve asset globally, driven by significant price increases and central bank purchases [1][3] - As of November 30, the total official gold reserves held by foreign governments exceeded 900 million troy ounces, valued at approximately $3.82 trillion, compared to nearly $3.88 trillion in U.S. Treasury securities [1] - The last time foreign institutions held more gold than U.S. Treasury bonds was in 1996, indicating a significant shift in reserve asset preferences [3] Group 1 - The value of U.S. official gold reserves is projected to reach $3.93 trillion by year-end, surpassing the value of foreign-held U.S. Treasury securities [3] - The rise in gold's status as a reserve asset reflects a decrease in countries' exposure to the U.S. financial system, potentially due to dollar depreciation and risks associated with U.S. sanctions [3] - Gold prices increased by 66% over the past year, highlighting its appeal as a safe-haven asset amid market uncertainties [3] Group 2 - The long-term trajectory of gold prices is influenced by various factors, including U.S. monetary and fiscal policies, low interest rates, and high inflation [4] - Market sentiment on gold's future is mixed, with most institutions optimistic about gold prices, while some, like Capital Economics, predict a decline in 2026 due to waning retail investor demand [4] - The recent surge in gold prices has been primarily driven by retail investor demand in the West, which may diminish if expectations regarding Federal Reserve interest rate cuts are proven incorrect [4]