市场消费维持淡季 预计沪铅期货回调的压力仍存

Core Viewpoint - The lead futures market in Shanghai experienced a significant drop, with the main contract falling to a low of 17,265.00 yuan, reflecting a decline of 2.01% [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - Copper Crown Jin Yuan Futures expects lead prices to remain high in the short term due to limited supply pressure and low inventory supporting prices [2] - Guotou Anxin Futures indicates that there is still downward pressure on lead prices, citing increased tax costs for recycled lead and ongoing maintenance at primary lead delivery brands [2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The overall supply situation is mixed, with primary lead smelters both reducing and resuming production, leading to a slight increase in January output, while recycled lead smelters are reducing production [2] - The consumption remains weak during the off-season, and after the rise in lead prices, spot purchasing has weakened, with long-term purchases being the primary focus [2] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Positioning - There was a significant inflow of funds into the Shanghai lead market, amounting to 280 million yuan, with an increase in weighted positions by 15,700 contracts to 116,800 contracts [2] - The market is closely monitoring the pressure from inventory accumulation and the impact of high prices on downstream consumption, which remains cautious [2]