（经济观察）前瞻2026：端牢中国饭碗面临哪些挑战？

Core Insights - In 2025, China's grain production reached 14,297.5 billion jin, an increase of 16.75 billion jin or 1.2% from the previous year, maintaining stability above 14 trillion jin despite challenges such as extreme weather and international trade disputes [1] - The Chinese government has prioritized grain production, increasing support for policies to stabilize planting areas and enhance production capacity, with a notable increase of 4.4 kg per mu in grain yield per unit area [1] - China has achieved 22 consecutive years of grain harvests, with per capita grain availability reaching 500 kg, surpassing the internationally recognized safety line of 400 kg [1] Outlook for 2026 - Experts predict that China's grain security will continue to improve in 2026, but challenges remain, including resource and environmental constraints, international trade protectionism, climate change, and ensuring farmers' income from grain production [2] - The Central Rural Work Conference emphasized the importance of enhancing grain production efficiency and quality, proposing a new round of actions to increase grain production capacity by 100 billion jin [2][3] - The conference also highlighted the need for stronger protection of arable land and the implementation of high-standard farmland construction [2] Challenges and Strategies - Extreme weather is identified as a significant variable affecting grain security, prompting calls for improved water infrastructure and enhanced agricultural disaster prevention capabilities [3] - The focus is on maintaining farmers' income as a foundation for grain production, with mechanisms for compensating grain-producing regions and ensuring stable income for farmers [3] - China has achieved basic self-sufficiency in grains but still relies on imports for certain categories, with ongoing efforts to diversify agricultural imports to mitigate risks from international uncertainties [3]