金源灿:下影阴线暗藏支撑信号 黄金日内低多策略为主导

Core Viewpoint - The international gold market experienced significant volatility, with a clear short-term support signal emerging amidst ongoing geopolitical tensions and a weakening dollar, indicating that the long-term upward trend remains intact [1][5]. Technical Analysis - The long lower shadow of the previous day's candlestick suggests strong support in the 4420-4430 range, with bearish momentum being effectively absorbed, allowing bulls to regroup [2][6]. - Gold has been oscillating around the high range since breaking the 4500 mark at the end of 2025, consistently testing key support levels that have held firm, reinforcing the resilience of the current upward trend [2][6]. - Short-term indicators show slight divergence, contributing to the previous day's pullback, but daily support signals remain robust, guiding short-term trading logic [2][6]. Fundamental Analysis - Multiple factors provide medium to long-term support for gold, including the prolonged stalemate in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, ongoing tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela, and instability in the Middle East, which sustain high global risk aversion [2][6]. - The trend of de-dollarization continues, with central banks increasing their gold reserves, positioning gold as the second-largest reserve asset globally, enhancing its status as a "safe haven" [2][6]. - Expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts are rising, with lower rates reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold, further solidifying its upward potential [2][6]. - Short-term disturbances are anticipated due to the Bloomberg Commodity Index's annual weight adjustment, which may trigger significant dollar-denominated gold futures liquidations, potentially increasing market volatility [2][6]. Trading Strategy - The trading strategy for gold today is primarily focused on buying on dips, with strict control over entry points and risk management [3][7]. - A buying opportunity is suggested around the 4410 level, with a stop-loss set just below 4400, which serves as a critical support line and a short-term pivot point [3][7]. - Key resistance levels to watch include 4445, with a potential upward target of 4460 if the market shows strong bullish momentum [3][7]. - If the 4400 support level is breached, a strategy adjustment is recommended, potentially shifting to a cautious stance or light short positions in the 4380-4390 range [3][7]. - Emphasis is placed on adhering to the principle of trading with the trend, as the long-term upward trajectory for gold remains unchanged, with short-term fluctuations viewed as normal corrections [3][7].