以破“7”收官2025，2026年人民币汇率将何去何从？
Xin Hua Cai Jing·2026-01-08 08:36

Core Viewpoint - In 2025, the RMB exchange rate experienced significant appreciation against the USD, influenced by tariff expectations, fluctuations in the USD, and improvements in the domestic environment, with onshore and offshore RMB appreciating approximately 4.27% and 4.93% respectively [1][2][3] Group 1: RMB Exchange Rate Trends in 2025 - The RMB exchange rate reached its highest levels since May 2023, closing at 6.9879 for onshore and 6.9697 for offshore [2] - The year can be divided into two phases: the first phase saw a depreciation of about 0.65% until early April due to rising global tariff risks, while the second phase from mid-April to year-end saw a cumulative appreciation of approximately 4.9% as external economic conditions improved [2][3] - The depreciation of the USD, driven by various factors including the Federal Reserve's shift to a loose monetary policy, contributed to the RMB's strength [3] Group 2: Internal and External Factors Supporting RMB Appreciation - Strong export performance supported the RMB's appreciation, with a trade surplus exceeding $1 trillion for the first 11 months of 2025 [3] - The Chinese capital market showed resilience, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 18.41%, the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 29.87%, and the ChiNext Index up by 49.57%, providing solid support for the RMB [3] - The implementation of stable exchange rate policies helped to smooth fluctuations and maintain market expectations [3][4] Group 3: Outlook for 2026 - The RMB is expected to continue a gradual appreciation against the USD in 2026, influenced by the USD's potential depreciation and narrowing interest rate differentials between China and the US [6][7] - The external economic environment's impact on the RMB may lessen, with improved resilience in China's economy and financial markets [6][7] - Despite potential short-term fluctuations, the RMB is projected to maintain a range of 6.9 to 7.3 against the USD, with a focus on balanced exchange rate management [7][8]