陆凯枫:回踩调整结束 黄金多头整装待发

Core Viewpoint - The overall market trend is currently facing resistance at the 4500 level, with a short-term ideal scenario being a pullback that does not drop below the 4400 support level, especially with the upcoming non-farm payroll data [1][3] Market Analysis - The market opened at a high of 4500 before quickly pulling back to a low of around 4425, closing near the 4460 mark, indicating that the potential for gold's upward movement has not yet been fully realized [1][3] - The geopolitical crisis is contributing to the expectation of gold's price increase, suggesting that waiting for a high-level pullback may require patience until the next cycle [1][3] Technical Indicators - The four-hour technical chart indicates a death cross adjustment, which has completed, and the focus is now on the gold bulls forming a golden cross to break through the 4500 resistance level [2][4] - The Bollinger Bands are opening upwards, but the upper band shows slight signs of turning, with prices operating between the middle and upper bands, where the middle band at 4460 serves as a key pivot point for short-term fluctuations [2][4] - The hourly MACD indicator shows a clear divergence, with the DIFF line rising while prices fail to reach new highs, indicating a potential technical correction in the short term [2][4] Support and Resistance Levels - The key support level to watch is the 4400 mark; if this level holds, the market is likely to maintain high-level consolidation, using time to alleviate overbought pressure [2][4] - If the price breaks below 4400, a further pullback could extend to the 4395-4405 range, which coincides with multiple support levels, including the 10-day moving average and the annual average [2][4] - The focus remains on whether the 4460 level can hold, while the 4500 resistance may not be easily breached unless significant geopolitical developments occur [2][4]