张尧浠:周尾就业数据来袭 金价仍可逢低做多

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices faced resistance and retreated, indicating weakened rebound momentum, yet remain above the midline and short-term moving averages, suggesting a bullish opportunity for re-entry [1][10]. Market Performance - On January 7, gold opened at $4,495.54 per ounce, reached a high of $4,500.27, then fell to a low of $4,423.39, ultimately closing at $4,456.29, with a daily fluctuation of $76.88 and a decline of $39.25, or 0.87% [10][12]. Influencing Factors - The resistance at the $4,500 mark led to profit-taking, while support buying and weaker-than-expected "non-farm payroll" data bolstered expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. Additionally, central banks in major Asian countries increased gold holdings for the 14th consecutive month, contributing to recovery from losses [3][12][15]. Future Outlook - Gold is expected to open slightly higher on January 9, with potential fluctuations due to previous day's pressures and a strengthening dollar index. However, the outlook remains bullish, with limited downward pressure anticipated [3][12]. Economic Indicators - Key economic indicators to watch include U.S. Challenger job cuts for December, initial jobless claims for the week ending January 3, October trade balance, and October wholesale sales month-on-month, with market expectations leaning towards bearish for gold prices [12][13]. Geopolitical Context - Following the arrest of Venezuelan President Maduro, U.S. President Trump announced plans for the extraction and sale of Venezuelan oil, alongside discussions about acquiring Greenland, which may heighten geopolitical uncertainties and drive safe-haven demand for gold [15]. Technical Analysis - Monthly charts indicate a strong start for gold, remaining above trendline resistance and recovering most of December's losses. If momentum continues, gold could see a bullish trend with potential gains exceeding 30%, targeting the $5,500 to $6,000 range [15][17]. Conversely, a drop below trendline support could signal a significant correction towards the $4,000 to $3,900 range [15]. Weekly and Daily Trends - Weekly charts show gold regaining most of last week's losses, reducing bearish patterns, and indicating potential for new historical highs. Daily charts suggest a temporary weakening of bullish momentum, yet the overall trend remains upward, with opportunities for re-entry on dips [17][18].