Core Viewpoint - The aluminum market is experiencing significant price fluctuations, reflecting the industry's transformation pains, with structural opportunities emerging in the context of increasing demand from new energy and high-end manufacturing sectors [1][10]. Price Fluctuations: Cyclical Adjustments Under Macro Disturbances - Short-term bearish pressures are evident, driven by a rebound in the US dollar, rising social inventory of aluminum nearing 550,000 tons (up 15% year-on-year), and weakened seasonal demand due to the upcoming Chinese New Year and pandemic disruptions, leading to a 10%-15% month-on-month decline in aluminum usage in construction and transportation sectors [1][2]. Industry Resilience Cannot Be Ignored - Cost support remains stable, with domestic alumina prices between 2,655-2,955 yuan/ton and pre-baked anode prices up 25% year-on-year, while the complete cost of electrolytic aluminum has surpassed 19,000 yuan/ton [2]. Structural Opportunities: New Energy Demand Reshaping Industry Logic - The economic viability of aluminum is increasing as the copper-aluminum price ratio rises to 1.8:1, with aluminum substitution in power cables and radiators reaching 30%, and the aluminum usage in a single GW photovoltaic module reaching 2,000 tons [3]. - Emerging sectors are witnessing explosive growth, such as humanoid robots requiring 80 kg of aluminum per unit, driven by Tesla's Optimus mass production plans, and the low-altitude economy pushing aluminum demand in aviation materials, with the market expected to exceed 50 billion yuan by 2026 [4]. Global Supply Chain Restructuring - Capacity transfer to Southeast Asia is anticipated, with an additional 1.5 million tons of electrolytic aluminum capacity expected in Vietnam and Indonesia within three years, while Chinese aluminum companies are seizing overseas markets through a "primary aluminum + deep processing" model [5]. - The share of recycled aluminum in domestic production has risen to 25%, with companies like Shunbo Alloy achieving profits of over 2,000 yuan per ton [5]. Market Outlook: A New Cycle of Recovery - Despite short-term pressures, long-term prospects remain positive, with strong support for the Shanghai aluminum main contract at 23,000 yuan/ton, and pre-holiday inventory replenishment by downstream processing enterprises potentially accelerating the inventory turning point [6]. - Three major trends are reshaping the industry landscape: the high-end upgrade driven by automotive lightweighting, smart production with AI quality inspection systems improving yield rates to 99.8% and reducing energy consumption by 12%, and global expansion with Yun Aluminum's alumina project in Indonesia increasing overseas resource share to 40% [6]. Investment Strategy: Seizing the "Dual-Driving" Main Line - Leading companies with high resource self-sufficiency include Shenhuo Co., with profits exceeding 4,000 yuan per ton and a strategic layout in Yunnan hydropower and Xinjiang coal power, and Zijin Mining, with African bauxite production expected to reach 5 million tons by 2026 [7]. - New energy material leaders such as Dingsheng New Materials, holding a 42% market share in battery aluminum foil, and Hesheng Co., ranking among the top three in CTP battery tray shipments [8]. - Recycled aluminum circular economy targets like Shunbo Alloy, with a capacity utilization rate exceeding 120%, and Huajin New Materials, achieving breakthroughs in recycled aluminum technology with costs 18% lower than primary aluminum [9].
铝价短期承压释放风险，单日大跌705元/吨！ 新能源赛道激活增长新动能
Xin Lang Cai Jing·2026-01-08 08:42