The Motley Fool·2026-01-08 08:55Core Viewpoint - Quantum computing stocks, including Rigetti, D-Wave, and IonQ, have seen significant returns over the past three years, but their valuations are bubble-like and likely to collapse by 2026 due to a lack of corresponding sales and earnings growth [1][12]. Group 1: Market Overview - Quantum computing is currently a microscopic market, with sales projected to reach $4.2 billion by 2030, compared to the AI market, which is expected to total $1.8 trillion, making AI 425 times larger [8]. - General-purpose quantum computers are estimated to be a decade or two away from being useful for most enterprises, with experts suggesting that tens of thousands to millions of physical qubits will be necessary for practical applications [2][3]. Group 2: Company Performance - Rigetti Computing's shares have increased by 3,210%, D-Wave Quantum's shares by 1,970%, and IonQ's shares by 1,290% over the past three years [5]. - Rigetti specializes in superconducting quantum computing with plans to launch 1,000-qubit systems by the end of 2027, while D-Wave focuses on quantum annealing with 5,000 qubits in its most advanced systems, and IonQ specializes in trapped-ion quantum computing with a goal of 20,000 qubits by 2028 [6]. Group 3: Valuation Metrics - Rigetti shares trade at 928 times sales, D-Wave at 362 times sales, and IonQ at 150 times sales, with projected revenue growth rates of 124%, 69%, and 84% annually through 2027, respectively [13]. - The current valuations of these quantum computing stocks are significantly higher than the most expensive stocks in the S&P 500, which trade at an average of 55 times sales, indicating that Rigetti would need to fall 94%, D-Wave 84%, and IonQ 63% to align with those valuations [11].