Xin Lang Cai Jing·2026-01-08 09:35Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is expected to welcome a "spring opening red" in 2026, driven by positive signals from policy expectations, liquidity, and fundamentals, with a focus on technology, non-bank financials, and consumer sectors [1][8]. Group 1: Spring Market Logic - Three main supporting factors for the spring market include: 1. Increased expectations for overseas liquidity easing, particularly with the upcoming announcement of the new Federal Reserve chair, leading to hopes for U.S. interest rate cuts in 2026 [2][9]. 2. Continuous inflow of incremental funds, exemplified by over 96 billion yuan net inflow into the A500 ETF since December, alongside insurance capital's demand for "opening red" allocations [2][9]. 3. Strengthened policy expectations, with the government emphasizing the need to stabilize investment and improve the real estate market outlook, indicating a trend towards a "transformation bull" market [2][9]. Group 2: Price Increase Signals - The importance of price signals is highlighted, with the central bank's fourth-quarter meeting focusing on promoting stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery. Price increase logic is gradually emerging in certain sectors since the second half of 2025 [3][10]. - Key sectors to watch include: 1. Chemical sector with improving demand but contracting supply, such as organic silicon, refrigerants, pesticides, and lithium carbonate in the new energy sector [3][10]. 2. TMT supply chain experiencing rapid demand expansion, leading to supply shortages in areas like storage chips and electronic materials [3][10]. 3. Non-ferrous metals sector benefiting from both financial and demand attributes, including precious metals and industrial metals [3][10]. Group 3: Industry Configuration - Three main investment themes identified: 1. Technology growth, driven by global chip technology breakthroughs and ongoing price increases in storage, with recommendations for sectors like internet, electronics, and manufacturing [4][11]. 2. Non-bank financials, benefiting from the shift of household deposits and growing wealth management needs, with recommendations for insurance and brokerage sectors [4][11]. 3. Cyclical opportunities, with low valuations and improving economic conditions, focusing on tourism, hospitality, and consumer goods, as well as tight supply in commodities like chemicals and metals [4][11]. Group 4: Thematic Investment Opportunities - Investment opportunities are emerging in AI applications, robotics, and commercial aerospace, which are expected to see significant catalysts [5][12].