智通财经网·2026-01-08 09:41Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs has a constructive outlook for the U.S. banking sector in 2026, anticipating strong performance from major Wall Street banks like JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America during the upcoming Q4 2025 earnings season, which is expected to lay the groundwork for sustained profit expansion and a bull market in 2026 [1][2] Group 1: Earnings and Revenue Growth - The upcoming earnings season starting in mid-January will be crucial, with major banks expected to deliver better-than-expected growth and optimistic outlooks, significantly impacting the U.S. and global stock markets [1] - The primary drivers of growth for large banks in 2026 will be the recovery of net interest income (NII) and the resilience of investment banking, wealth management, and equity trading businesses [1][2] Group 2: Net Interest Income (NII) and Operating Leverage - Goldman Sachs expects NII to recover after hitting a low in mid-2024, continuing to rise until 2027, supported by stable expense growth and positive operating leverage [2][5] - The firm emphasizes that the NII recovery cycle remains strong and can extend into 2027, with sensitivity analyses indicating a potential 2% annualized increase in NII and a 3% contribution to earnings per share (EPS) from securities re-pricing [5][14] Group 3: Fee Growth and Cost Management - Core fees are projected to grow by approximately 7% year-over-year in 2026, driven by investment banking, wealth management, and card fees, contributing to overall revenue improvement [9][10] - Goldman Sachs anticipates that while expenses will not see explosive growth, they will remain stable, particularly in investment banking and capital markets [9] Group 4: Capital and Share Buybacks - Regulatory reforms under the Trump administration are expected to enhance capital returns, with potential buybacks projected to increase significantly to around $172 billion in 2026, representing a 24% year-over-year growth [11][18] - The current excess capital among major banks is estimated at $80 billion, which could rise to $205 billion with regulatory easing, providing substantial support for buybacks [11] Group 5: Preferred Bank Stocks - Based on the aforementioned factors, Goldman Sachs' preferred bank stock list includes Bank of America, Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, U.S. Bancorp, and Wells Fargo, all of which are expected to benefit from improving NII, operational leverage, and strong capital positions [15][18] - The valuation metrics for these preferred stocks remain low, indicating potential for valuation recovery, especially in a declining interest rate environment [18]