香港大学预测香港今年全年经济增长2.5%至3%

Core Viewpoint - The University of Hong Kong predicts a slowdown in the city's economic growth to 3.1% in the first quarter of this year, with an estimated annual growth rate of 2.5% to 3% [1] Economic Growth Forecast - The economic growth for the last quarter of the previous year was estimated at 3.5%, with an overall growth of 3.4% for the entire year, which is higher than the projected growth for 2024 [1] Interest Rate Impact - Despite the U.S. Federal Reserve's three interest rate cuts last year, resulting in a cumulative reduction of 0.75%, Hong Kong is not expected to benefit immediately due to the lagging effect of local interest rate adjustments and a slow pace of further rate cuts this year [1] Consumer Behavior and Employment - Changes in consumer spending patterns and cross-border consumption have led to irreversible structural changes, although the job market is gradually adapting, with a slight increase in the unemployment rate expected to reach 3.7% this quarter [1] Private Consumption and Trade - Private consumption expenditure is projected to improve from a year-on-year increase of 2.8% in the last quarter to 3.9% this quarter, while goods exports are expected to slow from a forecasted increase of 14.3% to 8.2%, and imports from 14.6% to 8.8% [1] - Investment is forecasted to decline by 3.5% year-on-year, a shift from a previous estimate of a 1.9% increase [1]