煤炭ETF（515220）昨日净流入超3.2亿元，反内卷政策与需求预期支撑煤价中枢

Group 1 - The coal ETF (515220) saw a net inflow of over 320 million yuan, supported by anti-involution policies and demand expectations stabilizing coal prices [1] - Shanxi Securities indicated that anti-involution policies have reversed market expectations for coal, with the "Document 108" in 2025 aiming to compress supply through measures like checking overproduction, leading to a stabilization and rebound in coal prices [1] - The short-term controlled supply combined with long-term demand recovery expectations is likely to improve industry profitability, with coal consumption expected to enter a peak plateau during the 14th Five-Year Plan [1] Group 2 - The demand for thermal coal is expected to remain stable as long as the incremental growth of renewable energy generation does not exceed the overall electricity consumption growth [1] - By 2026, thermal coal is projected to maintain a tight balance with a price center around 720 yuan/ton, while coking coal may show a weak balance with a price center estimated at 1440 to 1584 yuan/ton, calculated as 2.0 to 2.2 times that of thermal coal [1] - The coal ETF (515220) has a scale exceeding 9 billion yuan, tracking the CSI Coal Index (399998), with a high dividend yield in the coal sector, exceeding 6% over the past 12 months as of the end of 2025, highlighting its allocation value in a declining risk-free interest rate environment [1]