对“万亿俱乐部”祛魅

Core Viewpoint - The concept of "trillion-dollar club" cities reflects the ongoing evolution of China's economic landscape, with cities like Wenzhou expected to join this club, while the implications of such growth are increasingly complex and nuanced [3][5]. Group 1: Economic Growth and "Trillion-Dollar Club" - Wenzhou is projected to surpass a GDP of 1 trillion yuan, joining the "trillion-dollar club," with other cities like Xuzhou and Dalian likely to follow soon [3]. - The "trillion-dollar club" was first established around 2012, with Shenzhen being the fourth city to cross the 1 trillion yuan threshold, highlighting the uneven economic development across China [3]. - The term has become a competitive goal for local governments, often appearing in planning documents and government reports, despite the lack of substantial policy implications [4]. Group 2: Changing Economic Dynamics - The expansion of the "trillion-dollar club" now includes nearly 30 cities, reflecting China's overall economic growth, but the meaning of being a "trillion-dollar city" has evolved as the country transitions away from high-speed growth [5]. - In 2011, China's GDP growth rate was 9.2%, with most cities experiencing growth; by 2024, the growth rate is expected to drop to 5%, with more cities facing negative growth or significantly lower growth than the national average [5]. - The phenomenon of urban polarization is evident, where cities that have crossed the "trillion" threshold may be benefiting from the economic decline of surrounding areas, leading to a dual expansion of "trillion-dollar cities" and "shrinking cities" [5][6]. Group 3: Growth vs. Quality of Life - Many cities experiencing population decline still see GDP growth, a paradox linked to local governments' adherence to a "growthism" model, focusing on economic expansion rather than optimizing public services [6]. - The entrenched belief in prioritizing GDP growth over other metrics has led to a situation where cities continue to expand infrastructure despite population loss [6]. - Embracing the concept of "shrinking cities" and moving away from the obsession with "trillion" status could lead to more sustainable and livable urban environments, focusing on quality rather than sheer economic size [6].