少数派周良：本轮牛市的目标是历史新高

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese stock market is poised for a bull market driven by five key factors, which have not yet been fully reflected in market valuations, suggesting potential for significant growth in the coming years [3][9]. Group 1: Interest Rate Reduction - The yield on China's 10-year government bonds is at 1.9%, while the average dividend yield of the CSI 300 index is 2.5%, surpassing long-term government bonds [4][13]. - Compared to the U.S. market, where the S&P 500 index has a price-to-earnings ratio of 25 and a dividend yield of 1.2%, Chinese stocks offer better value with lower valuations and higher yields [4][13]. Group 2: Capital Overflow - The real estate market, which previously attracted significant investment, has lost its capacity to absorb funds as property prices have peaked and declined [5][14]. - There is a substantial amount of excess savings, estimated at 50 trillion, with household deposits reaching 162 trillion, creating a need for alternative investment channels, primarily the stock market [5][14]. - The CSI 300 index has seen a consistent increase of around 15% over the past two years, improving investor sentiment and encouraging more capital inflow into the stock market [5][14]. Group 3: Economic Driver - The decline in real estate prices has led to a significant reduction in household wealth, estimated to be over 100 trillion, negatively impacting consumer confidence and spending [6][15]. - The government has emphasized the importance of stabilizing and activating the capital market as a key measure to restore consumer confidence through wealth effects [6][15]. Group 4: Profit Support - After nine consecutive quarters of negative growth, non-financial listed companies are expected to return to positive profit growth in 2025, with a projected growth rate of 14% for the MSCI China index in 2026, driven by sectors like internet platforms and high-end manufacturing [7][16]. - The recovery in corporate profits is seen as a confirmation of economic resilience, providing fundamental support for a gradual bull market in stocks [7][16]. Group 5: Global Landscape - The competitive dynamics between China and the U.S. have shifted, with China taking a more proactive stance in trade disputes, leading to a change in the balance of power [8][17]. - As global investors reassess the competitive landscape, there is an anticipated increase in long-term investment demand for Chinese assets, which is expected to be sustained over time [8][17]. - In a strong market environment, investment strategies should prioritize high-growth, technology, and small-cap stocks, while value stocks can serve as stable long-term holdings [8][17].