Zheng Quan Shi Bao·2026-01-08 10:39Core Viewpoint - The white liquor industry is experiencing significant performance declines, with companies like Kuozi Jiao (口子窖) projecting a 50% to 60% decrease in net profit for 2025, reflecting broader market expectations of continued pressure on growth [1][2]. Industry Performance - Kuozi Jiao expects a net profit of 662 million to 828 million yuan for 2025, a substantial drop compared to the previous year [1]. - The white liquor sector is undergoing a deep adjustment, with many companies facing growth challenges and setting modest targets for 2026 [1][2]. - According to a report by招商证券, the white liquor industry's revenue, net profit, and cash collection for Q3 2025 are projected to decline by 18.4%, 22.2%, and 26.7% year-on-year, respectively [2]. Causes of Decline - Kuozi Jiao attributes its profit decline to falling demand and policy impacts, with high-end product sales significantly decreasing [2]. - The industry is experiencing structural adjustments, with a noted increase in market differentiation and channel changes [2][3]. - 国信证券 forecasts that the revenue and net profit declines will continue to widen, with profit margins under sustained pressure due to reduced consumer demand and weakened channel capabilities [3]. Strategic Responses - Major white liquor companies are actively engaging in strategic meetings to outline their annual results and plans for 2026, signaling a commitment to stabilize and innovate despite market challenges [4]. - Guizhou Moutai emphasizes a consumer-centric approach and aims to enhance market precision and service levels while maintaining stable product pricing [4]. - Wuliangye is focusing on proactive market adjustments and inventory management to navigate the complexities of the current industry landscape [4][5]. Market Adjustments - The leading companies are entering a phase of active adjustment, with Moutai and Wuliangye implementing strategies to optimize supply-demand structures and channel ecosystems [5]. - The consensus among top liquor firms is to prioritize high-quality development and align strategies with consumer needs to achieve balanced pricing and supply [5].