仲量联行：北京办公楼租赁市场加速重构定价逻辑

Core Insights - The Beijing office market is transitioning from a "downturn phase" to a "re-pricing" mindset, with tenant bargaining power increasing significantly [1][2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - By 2025, lease renewals are expected to dominate the Beijing office market, as tenants view relocation as a high-cost burden rather than an upgrade opportunity [1] - The overall demand in the Beijing office market remains weak, leading most companies to prefer renewing or downsizing within the same building to avoid one-time costs associated with relocation [1] - The report indicates that the net absorption in the Beijing office market remains low, with a slight decrease in vacancy rates expected by the end of 2025, dropping by 0.3 percentage points to 15.2% [2] Group 2: Rental Trends - The average monthly rent for Grade A office space in Beijing was 210 yuan per square meter in Q4 2025, reflecting a 5.6% decrease quarter-on-quarter and a 16.3% decline year-on-year [2] - Tenant bargaining power has reached historical highs, with initial quotes from landlords becoming more aligned with achievable levels [2] - The report anticipates a slowdown in the rate of rental decline, projecting a 6.6% decrease in average rent for 2026, indicating some stabilization in certain sub-markets [2][3] Group 3: Future Outlook - The market is expected to maintain a tenant-led dynamic, with landlords prioritizing occupancy rates over rental growth [3] - Despite the anticipated stabilization in rental rates, the influx of new supply in 2026, estimated at around 700,000 square meters, will continue to exert downward pressure on rents [2]