ATFX:马杜罗事件提振作用消散，WTI再次跌破56美元

Core Viewpoint - The performance of WTI crude oil in 2025 remains subdued despite ongoing geopolitical tensions, with the impacts of conflicts such as the Russia-Ukraine war and the Israel-Iran conflict diminishing over time [1][6][7]. Group 1: Geopolitical Events and Oil Prices - The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict has had a weak impact on the oil market by 2025, with the market's response to the conflict significantly reduced [1][6]. - The Israel-Iran conflict, which escalated in June 2025, saw WTI crude oil reach a peak of $78.4 but closed at $64.97, indicating a substantial decline from its peak [1][7]. - The recent capture of Venezuelan President Maduro, who was taken by U.S. forces, was expected to disrupt oil exports due to Venezuela's significant oil reserves, yet the market's reaction was muted [1][7]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Trends - Following the Maduro event, WTI crude oil prices initially rose from an opening price of $57.47 to a high of $58.51, but quickly fell back, with prices hitting a low of $55.76, marking a new weekly low [1][7]. - The lack of sustained market reaction to the Maduro event is attributed to the rapid execution of U.S. actions, which left little room for market speculation and investment [2][8]. - Since reaching a high of $130 in 2022, WTI crude oil has been in a downward trend, although the pace of decline has slowed in recent years [5][10]. Group 3: Support Levels and Future Outlook - The price range of $54.86 to $55.9 is identified as a potential support zone, with $54.86 being a significant low point from October 2025 [5][10]. - If WTI prices rebound in the coming days, it could confirm a double bottom structure; otherwise, the downward trend may continue under high inventory pressures [5][10].