SBI projects 7.5% GDP growth! FY26 figures may surpass government estimates after base year revision — Here's what report says

Economic Growth Projections - India's GDP growth in FY26 is projected to be closer to 7.5%, with potential for upward revision following the base year revision to 2022-23 [2][4] - Current official projections by the National Statistical Office (NSO) estimate real GDP growth at 7.4% for FY26, up from 6.5% in FY25 [4] - The second advance estimates, incorporating additional data, are scheduled for release on February 27, 2026, and are expected to reflect changes from the base year revision [2][4] Income Levels - Per capita national income is projected to increase by Rs 16,025 annually, reaching Rs 2,47,487 in FY26, indicating expected growth momentum [3][4] Sector-wise Growth Projections - Agriculture and allied activities are estimated to grow by 3.1% in FY26, down from 4.6% in the previous year [3][4] - The services sector is expected to expand by 9.1% in FY26, significantly higher than the 7.2% growth recorded last year, with all sub-sectors anticipated to outpace last year's levels [3][4] - Industrial growth is estimated at 6.0% in FY26, slightly higher than the 5.9% growth seen in FY25, supported by strong manufacturing output growth of 7.0% [3][4] - Mining output is projected to decline by 0.7% in FY26, contrasting with a growth of 2.7% in FY25 [3][4] Historical Trends - The gap between GDP growth estimates published by the Reserve Bank of India and the NSO has historically remained within a narrow range of 20–30 basis points [2][4]