Motilal Oswal sees 8% YoY growth in Nifty Q3 earnings; SBI, Eternal among 5 top ideas

Core Insights - The overall earnings momentum in Q3FY26 is expected to be driven by significant growth in sectors such as oil & gas and financials, with profits projected to increase by 25% YoY and 26% YoY, respectively [1][12] - The Nifty 50 is anticipated to deliver an 8% year-on-year growth in earnings, while the broader MOFSL universe is expected to see a 25% YoY increase in earnings [12] Earnings Growth Projections - Excluding financials, earnings for the MOFSL universe and the Nifty 50 are expected to grow 19% and 9% YoY, respectively [1] - Earnings growth for the MOFSL universe, excluding metals and oil & gas, is projected at 14% YoY, while for the Nifty 50, it is estimated at 11% YoY [1] - Automobiles are projected to deliver a 25% YoY increase in earnings, while metals are expected to grow by 15% [2] - Telecom profits are expected to increase 2.6 times over a low base in Q3FY25, and technology sector earnings are likely to rise by 8% [2] Sector Contributions - Key contributors to earnings growth include real estate (64% YoY), cement (66%), capital goods (24%), and NBFC non-lending firms (31%), which together are expected to account for nearly 77% of the incremental YoY earnings accretion during the quarter [3] - In contrast, earnings from banks are expected to grow modestly, with private banks at 4% YoY and public sector banks at 3% YoY [6] - The infrastructure and media sectors are projected to drag overall earnings, with profits estimated to decline by 3% and 7% YoY, respectively [6] FY26 Outlook - For FY26, MOFSL expects Nifty companies' earnings to grow by 8% YoY, and excluding financials, a 7% YoY increase is anticipated [7] - The broader MOFSL universe is projected to record a 14% YoY increase in profits for the full financial year, with a 17% YoY rise expected when excluding financials [8] - EPS estimates for FY26 and FY27 have been trimmed by 2.2% and 1.1%, respectively, with FY26 EPS expected to grow 9% YoY to Rs 1,084 [8][9] Market Outlook - MOFSL remains 'Overweight' on sectors such as autos, diversified financials, industrials, and technology, while being 'Underweight' on oil & gas, metals, and consumer staples [10] - The brokerage notes that multiple levers are in place to propel Indian equity markets in 2026, despite challenges from geopolitical and global trade factors [11][12]