2025年丁二烯市场回顾与展望：供增需缓下的行业变局

Core Viewpoint - The domestic butadiene market in 2025 experienced fluctuations with a significant price drop compared to 2024, influenced by macroeconomic disturbances, new production capacities, high import volumes, and the performance of downstream synthetic futures [2][3][4][5][6] Group 1: Price Trends - In 2025, the average price of butadiene in Shandong was 9689 yuan/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 17.74%, with a high of 13150 yuan/ton and a low of 6800 yuan/ton [2] - The first quarter saw a strong price increase followed by a decline due to geopolitical factors and increased supply from the restart of certain production facilities [2] - The second quarter experienced significant price volatility, with a sharp drop in April due to U.S. tariffs and new production capacities coming online, followed by a recovery in May after positive trade talks between China and the U.S. [3] - In the third quarter, butadiene prices fluctuated widely, with tight supply in July leading to higher prices, but a subsequent easing of supply in August and September caused prices to decline [4] - The fourth quarter saw a "V"-shaped price trend, with prices hitting a low in November before recovering in December due to external market influences and improved demand from downstream synthetic rubber [5] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply side in 2026 is expected to be robust with new butadiene facilities coming online, including those from Zhongsha Gulei and Huajin Aramco, alongside continued production from facilities that started in late 2025 [6] - Demand may be affected by slowing growth in natural rubber production and ongoing global trade conflicts, which could hinder the improvement of terminal demand [6] - The potential for increased butadiene exports due to the planned exit of some overseas ethylene facilities and the possibility of domestic facilities shifting to lighter hydrocarbons should be monitored closely [6]