Mhmarkets迈汇:指数再平衡引发金银高位波动

Core Insights - Silver prices have recently faced resistance after surpassing the $80 mark, with significant volatility risks anticipated in the short term despite strong macro bullish logic [1][3] - In 2025, both gold and silver exhibited remarkable performance, with silver rising nearly 150% and gold increasing by 64%, marking the most significant gains since 1979 [1][4] - The Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) allocates approximately 11% to silver and gold, necessitating forced "sell high, buy low" operations at the beginning of the year due to substantial price increases [4] Market Dynamics - A predicted net outflow of approximately $5 billion is expected for both gold and silver markets, driven by passive index funds rebalancing their positions rather than a loss of confidence in precious metals [4][5] - The energy market is benefiting from this rebalancing process, with expected inflows of $2.6 billion into Brent crude oil and $1.7 billion into WTI crude oil, as funds shift from overvalued metals to undervalued energy assets [2][4] - The Comex silver market may see about 13% of open contracts sold in the next two weeks, which could trigger a sharp price decline due to large-scale position adjustments [5] Long-term Outlook - Despite short-term volatility driven by technical factors, silver and gold are expected to remain essential cornerstone assets in the global economy for the new year [5] - If the anticipated price corrections are solely driven by technical fund flows rather than fundamental deterioration, this could present strategic investors with an opportunity to optimize their cost basis [5]