Analysts Warn of Potential Demand “Air-Pocket” for Rivian (RIVN) in 2026

Core Viewpoint - Rivian Automotive, Inc. is facing challenges in demand due to tech transitions and policy shifts, leading to a cautious outlook from Morgan Stanley with an Underweight rating and a price target of $12.00 [1] Group 1: Vehicle Deliveries and Production - In Q4 2025, Rivian delivered 9,745 vehicles, marking a 31% year-over-year decline, slightly above Morgan Stanley's estimate of 9,525 but below the consensus forecast of 10,100 vehicles [2] - The company produced 42,284 vehicles and delivered 42,247 vehicles, reflecting a 15% and 18% year-over-year decline respectively, aligning with its guidance [3] Group 2: Future Outlook and Demand - The demand for 2026 is viewed cautiously due to the expiration of the EV tax credit and the evolving tech hardware roadmap, including the introduction of LiDAR for advanced autonomy expected in late 2026 [4][5] - Analysts are focusing on the upcoming Q4 2025 earnings and 2026 guidance, particularly the production ramp of the R2 model, with a report scheduled for February 12, 2026 [3]