Xin Lang Cai Jing·2026-01-08 11:31Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market continued its downward trend on January 8, with the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index both falling over 1% [1][9] - Major tech stocks such as Meituan, Alibaba, and Tencent experienced declines, while Bilibili saw a rise of over 2% [1][9] - The Hong Kong Internet ETF (513770) closed down 0.93%, indicating a persistent premium and a positive attitude from buyers, with over 500 million yuan net inflow in the last three days [1][9] Alibaba Developments - Alibaba announced significant progress in its Taobao Flash Sales in the latest quarter and plans to increase investments to achieve market leadership [3][11] - Forecasts suggest that the market share of Taobao Flash Sales will continue to grow strongly by Q4 2025, with a faster reduction in losses compared to competitors [3][11] - The Ministry of Commerce predicts that China's instant retail market will exceed 1 trillion yuan by 2026 and reach 2 trillion yuan by 2030 [3][11] AI Advancements - Alibaba's Amap has upgraded its "Street Scanning List" with new features, leveraging self-developed world model technology to introduce a "Flying Street View" function [3][11] - Industry experts believe Amap is building a continuously evolving "true" digital asset pool, positioning itself as a super hub in the AI era [3][11] - The profitability cycle of the AI industry is expected to drive growth for major internet companies like Alibaba and Tencent, with a projected 34% EPS growth for the Hang Seng Tech Index by 2026 [3][11] Capital Inflows - Since the beginning of the year, southbound funds have significantly purchased Hong Kong stocks, with a net inflow of 30.78 billion HKD in the first three trading days of 2026 [4][12] - Major beneficiaries include Xiaomi, which received a net inflow of 3.148 billion HKD, and Alibaba, which saw over 2 billion HKD in net purchases [4][12] - Goldman Sachs forecasts that southbound fund inflows will reach a new high of 200 billion USD in 2026, driven by the current 37% premium of AH shares, highlighting the valuation advantages of Hong Kong stocks [4][12] Market Outlook - According to Guangfa Securities, the rise in Hong Kong assets is supported by fundamentals, with signs of structural recovery in profitability starting from the second half of 2024 [4][12] - The shift from liquidity-driven growth to a combination of profitability and liquidity is anticipated, especially with the decline of food delivery subsidies and the emergence of AI-driven advertising and cloud services as new growth points [4][12] - The Hong Kong Internet ETF and its linked funds track the CSI Hong Kong Internet Index, with major holdings in Alibaba, Tencent, and Xiaomi, accounting for over 78% of the top ten weighted stocks [4][12] Top Holdings in Hong Kong Internet ETF - Tencent Holdings (0700.HK) - 15.42% [5][13] - Alibaba (0988.HK) - 14.50% [5][13] - Xiaomi Group (1810.HK) - 13.11% [5][13] - Meituan (3690.HK) - 12.03% [5][13] - Kuaishou (1024.HK) - 4.24% [5][13]