Xin Lang Cai Jing·2026-01-08 11:36Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Commerce of China has initiated an anti-dumping investigation into imports of dichlorosilane from Japan, which is expected to impact the domestic market and local manufacturers significantly [6][3]. Group 1: Investigation Details - The anti-dumping investigation period is set from July 1, 2024, to June 30, 2025, with the damage investigation period from January 1, 2022, to June 30, 2025 [6][3]. - The investigation officially commenced on January 7, 2026, and is expected to conclude by January 7, 2027, with a possible extension of six months under special circumstances [6][3]. Group 2: Market Impact - The quantity of dichlorosilane imported from Japan has been increasing, while prices have dropped by 31% from 2022 to 2024, leading to a decline in domestic manufacturers' capacity utilization from 82% to 61% [3][7]. - If dumping is confirmed, it may lead to anti-dumping duties, increasing import costs and narrowing the price gap with domestic products, which would benefit local companies [9][4]. Group 3: Domestic Production Capacity - China's total production capacity for dichlorosilane is approximately 190,000 tons per year, with 150,000 tons for industrial grade and 40,000 tons for electronic grade [8][4]. - Major players in the market include: - Hoshine Silicon Industry: 125,000 tons total capacity [9] - Xin'an Chemical: 20,000 tons electronic grade capacity [9] - Yake Technology: 5,200 tons electronic grade capacity [9] - Sanfu Technology: 5,000 tons electronic grade capacity [9] - Dongyue Group: 15,000 tons combined capacity [9]. Group 4: Market Growth Projections - The market size for dichlorosilane in China is projected to reach 2.58 billion yuan in 2024, with an expected compound annual growth rate of 12.3% from 2025 to 2030, potentially exceeding 5 billion yuan by 2030 [9][4]. - The anti-dumping investigation is anticipated to accelerate the domestic production of electronic grade dichlorosilane, with the localization rate expected to rise from 32% in 2027 to over 45% [9][4].