一天一个价，涨幅远超黄金！业内人士：还会涨

Core Insights - The global DRAM market is experiencing an unprecedented price surge, with most categories seeing price increases exceeding 100% since July 2025 [2][10] - The price of DDR4 and DDR5 memory has increased by 2-3 times within a year, and the trend is expected to accelerate into 2026 [2][10] - The price of a single 256GB DDR5 server memory module has surpassed 40,000 yuan, equating its value to that of several properties in Shanghai [2][10] Price Trends - The current market has entered a "super bull market" phase, surpassing historical highs from 2018, with forecasts indicating a 40%-50% price increase in Q4 2025 and Q1 2026, followed by a 20% increase in Q2 2026 [11][12] - Retail prices for mainstream dual-channel 2×16GB memory have risen to around 1,600 yuan, doubling from approximately 800 yuan during the 2025 618 shopping festival [11][12] Demand Drivers - The explosive growth of the AI industry in 2025 is a primary driver of the current supply-demand imbalance, with AI servers requiring 8-10 times more storage chips than standard servers [12][13] - High-end storage demand is significantly impacting the allocation of consumer-grade memory production [12] Supply Constraints - Major manufacturers like Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron are reallocating resources towards high-margin products such as HBM and DDR5, leading to a strategic reduction in DDR4 production [13] - These companies have halted capital investments and technological advancements in DDR4, planning to significantly reduce its production share between 2025 and 2026 [13] Impact on Other Industries - The rising memory prices are expected to affect smartphone costs, with memory accounting for 10%-20% of the bill of materials (BoM) for flagship models like the iPhone 17 Pro Max [14] - Counterpoint forecasts a 2.1% decline in global smartphone shipments in 2026 due to increased storage costs, leading to potential price hikes or reduced specifications for smartphones [14]