Silver Extends Drop as Traders Brace for Wider Index Rebalancing

Core Viewpoint - Gold and silver prices are experiencing a decline as investors prepare for an annual rebalancing of commodity indexes, which will involve the sale of futures contracts worth billions of dollars [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Spot gold has fallen below $4,450 an ounce, losing nearly 1% in the previous session, as passive tracking funds begin selling precious metals futures to align with new index weightings [2]. - Silver has seen a more significant drop, falling over 3% on Thursday, and is particularly susceptible to a sharp selloff, with Citigroup estimating that approximately $6.8 billion in silver futures could be sold, representing about 12% of open interest on Comex [3][4]. - Outflows from gold futures are expected to be similar in magnitude to those in silver, as estimated by Citigroup based on funds tracking the Bloomberg Commodity Index and the S&P Goldman Sachs Commodity Index [4]. Group 2: Historical Context and Future Outlook - The rebalancing process is routine but has gained importance due to the significant rise in the weighting of precious metals in commodity benchmarks, with last year's index selloff not causing a noticeable market drag [5]. - Analysts remain broadly bullish on gold despite short-term price pressures, citing its best annual performance since 1979, driven by central bank buying and inflows into bullion-backed exchange-traded funds [7]. - HSBC's chief precious metals analyst predicts gold could reach $5,000 an ounce in the first half of 2026, supported by increasing geopolitical risks and rising fiscal debts [8].