Xin Lang Cai Jing·2026-01-08 11:43Core Viewpoint - The electrolyte industry is in the midstream of the new energy supply chain, currently experiencing a phase of expansion after destocking, with a focus on cost control as its core competitive advantage. The global market is dominated by China, with a highly concentrated domestic market characterized by a "one super, two strong" structure. Future trends indicate diversification, structural adjustments, and accelerated technological iterations driven by the rapid expansion of the new energy vehicle and energy storage industries [1][36]. Industry Overview - The electrolyte industry is positioned in the midstream of the new energy supply chain, with lithium salts and organic solvents upstream and battery cell manufacturers downstream. The industry is currently in the early stages of expansion following destocking. Compared to other lithium battery materials, the entry barriers in the electrolyte industry are relatively low [2][40]. - Electrolytes are a key component of lithium batteries, responsible for ion conduction, accounting for approximately 10-20% of the manufacturing cost. The main components include lithium salts, organic solvents, and additives, with lithium hexafluorophosphate (LiPF₆) being the mainstream lithium salt [2][37]. - From 2022 to 2024, global shipments of electrolytes are expected to continue growing due to increasing demand from lithium batteries, with Chinese companies' shipment share rising to over 90% by 2024. However, the significant decline in electrolyte prices has led to a contraction in the global market sales scale during this period [2][38]. Production Capacity and Market Dynamics - Between 2022 and 2024, the expansion rate of electrolyte production capacity is expected to exceed market demand growth, resulting in structural overcapacity in the industry. By 2024, China's electrolyte production capacity is projected to exceed 5 million tons, but the average capacity utilization rate is only between 25-35% [8][43]. - The pricing pressure on electrolytes is exacerbated by the strong bargaining power of downstream customers, such as battery manufacturers and automotive companies, leading to prolonged accounts receivable periods. Consequently, electrolyte prices are expected to decline continuously from 2022 to 2024, remaining below 20,000 yuan per ton from 2025 onwards [8][44]. Competitive Landscape - Cost control is the core of competition in the electrolyte industry. Chinese electrolyte companies dominate the global market, with a high concentration in the domestic market. The first-tier companies, including Tianqi Materials, BYD, and Xinzhou Bang, collectively hold about 60% market share [11][49]. - The first-tier companies leverage vertical integration to build competitive advantages, while second-tier companies focus on niche markets or specific regions for differentiated competition. The second-tier includes companies like Ruifeng New Materials and Kunlun New Materials, which face unique structural challenges [11][52]. - By 2024, the first-tier companies are expected to maintain a significant market share, while the second-tier companies are projected to grow their shipments by approximately 40% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, potentially encroaching on the first-tier's market share [11][52]. Financial Performance of Key Companies - In 2024, the total revenue of sample electrolyte companies is expected to decline, with a decrease in profit margins and overall revenue quality. Notably, Xinzhou Bang's revenue is projected to increase due to growth in its electronic information chemical business, while other sample companies are expected to see revenue declines [21][56]. - The asset structure of these companies shows a high proportion of accounts receivable, indicating significant capital occupation, while fixed assets remain high, suggesting potential depreciation pressures in the future [21][56]. - Operating cash flow for these companies is expected to decline in 2024, primarily due to decreased revenue and quality of revenue realization. Tianqi Materials is expected to maintain positive cash flow despite lower revenue quality, while other companies may face cash outflows [23][58]. Future Trends - The rapid expansion of new energy vehicles and energy storage industries is expected to drive diversification and structural adjustments in the electrolyte market. The demand for electrolytes is anticipated to grow, supported by the global electrification process and the explosion of the energy storage market [33][68]. - The rise of solid-state batteries presents structural challenges for the electrolyte industry. In the short term, the demand for gel electrolytes and composite solid-liquid electrolytes is expected to increase, while traditional liquid electrolytes may see stable or declining demand in the medium to long term [34][69].