'Substantial Shortfall' in Copper Supply Widens as the Race for AI and Growing Defense Spending Add to Accelerating Demand, New S&P Global Study Finds

Core Insights - A significant copper supply deficit is projected to reach 10 million metric tons by 2040 due to a 50% increase in demand driven by electrification, AI, and defense spending [1][2][3] Demand Projections - Global copper demand is expected to rise to 42 million metric tons by 2040, a 50% increase from current levels [1] - Core economic demand will account for 23 million metric tons (53% of global demand) by 2040, while energy transition and additional demand will increase to 15.7 million metric tons [6] - Demand from AI and data centers, along with rising defense spending, is anticipated to add 4 million metric tons to the total demand by 2040 [7] Supply Challenges - Global copper production is projected to peak at 33 million metric tons in 2030, leading to a substantial shortfall by 2040 [2] - The study indicates that overcoming the supply gap will require an additional 10 million metric tons of primary supply by 2040, alongside increased recycling efforts [8] - The copper sector faces challenges such as declining ore grades, rising costs, and complex extraction conditions, with an average of 17 years needed for a new copper mine to go from discovery to production [9][10] Strategic Importance - Copper has been classified as a 'critical metal' by several countries, including the United States, due to its essential role in various sectors [4] - The future availability of copper is deemed a matter of strategic importance, linking machinery, digital intelligence, and security systems [4] Conclusion - The study emphasizes the need for multilateral cooperation and regional diversification to ensure a resilient global copper supply system, crucial for electrification and digitalization in the age of AI [11]