兴证策略张启尧团队：2025年并购重组有何新动向？

Group 1 - The M&A market in 2025 is expected to be highly active, with a total of 1,527 cases involving a scale of 10,158 billion yuan, marking a new high since 2022, driven by policy support and market recovery [1][30] - The number of M&A cases in the first half of 2025 is projected to be 665, while the second half is expected to see 862 cases, with respective scales of 4,174 billion yuan and 5,984 billion yuan [2][31] Group 2 - The majority of M&A cases in 2025 will be concentrated in new productivity industries, including chemicals, electronics, pharmaceuticals, machinery, power equipment, automotive, and computers, while traditional industries like coal, utilities, transportation, and non-ferrous metals will contribute to large-scale M&A [6][35] - Compared to 2024, industries such as chemicals, environmental protection, electronics, home appliances, automotive, and pharmaceuticals will see a significant increase in the number of M&A cases, while coal, utilities, transportation, electronics, chemicals, and non-ferrous metals will see a larger scale of M&A [8][37] Group 3 - Non-state-owned enterprises (non-SOEs) are expected to see a significant increase in the proportion of M&A amounts, rising from 23.5% in 2024 to 37.2% in 2025, while the number of M&A cases remains stable [11][40] - In traditional industries, M&A activities are primarily led by state-owned enterprises (SOEs), while new productivity industries are mainly driven by non-SOEs [14][43] Group 4 - The proportion of cross-border M&A is expected to increase, with 56.31% of M&A cases classified as cross-border in 2025, up 6.2 percentage points from 2024 [18][47] - Industries such as steel, electrical equipment, construction, transportation, pharmaceuticals, and food and beverage will have a higher proportion of same-industry M&A, while industries like petrochemicals, papermaking, building materials, coal, and durable consumer goods will have a higher proportion of cross-border M&A [19][48] Group 5 - M&A cases involving traditional industries transitioning to new productivity and those focusing on strong supply chain integration in new productivity sectors are expected to yield significant excess returns [23][52] - Traditional industry M&A aims to improve competitive dynamics and create leading enterprises, while new productivity M&A focuses on resource integration and technology acquisition [25][54] Group 6 - Typical cases of traditional industries acquiring new productivity companies include ecological environment companies entering AI sectors and traditional power companies investing in new energy storage projects [29][58] - New productivity industries are expected to enhance their capabilities through same-industry M&A, acquiring technologies and market resources to strengthen their supply chains [29][58]