视频|付鹏：穿越回1970-1980 从美苏争霸看当下的“战争金属”和资源博弈

Core Insights - The article draws parallels between the current era and the late Cold War period of the 70s and 80s, highlighting that both periods experience significant fluctuations in strategic metal prices due to geopolitical tensions and technological advancements [1][2] - The primary drivers of abnormal price volatility in strategic metals are identified as war expectations and national strategic reserve demands, rather than industrial demand growth [1][2] - Historical evidence suggests that even during times of strong industrial demand post-Cold War, metal prices tend to decline, indicating the importance of understanding the underlying causes of price movements [1][2] Summary by Categories Geopolitical Context - The current geopolitical landscape mirrors the Cold War dynamics, characterized by simultaneous advancements in productivity and geopolitical tensions, which may lead to unusual price fluctuations in metals with both strategic and industrial significance [1][2] Price Drivers - The core drivers of severe price volatility in strategic metals are geopolitical conflicts and strategic reserve needs, rather than emerging industrial demands, indicating that misjudging these factors could result in significant investment errors [1][2] Market Influences - During the Cold War, the U.S. and the Soviet Union influenced metal supply and demand through strategic reserves, trade embargoes, and proxy wars; similarly, the current U.S.-China competitive model exhibits features reminiscent of the Cold War, necessitating attention to policy interventions in the market [1][2]