若特朗普在最高法院败诉，进口商或将掀起1500亿美元关税退款争夺战

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Supreme Court is expected to rule on the legality of tariffs imposed by former President Donald Trump, which could lead to a $150 billion refund battle for importers seeking to reclaim previously paid tariffs [1][9]. Group 1: Legal Context and Implications - Trump is the first U.S. president to impose tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), typically used for sanctions against hostile nations [2][11]. - As of December 14, tariffs imposed under this act have generated approximately $133.5 billion in revenue, nearing $150 billion based on recent averages [2][11]. - The Supreme Court's ruling could invalidate these tariffs, but there are concerns that the government may resist refunding the collected amounts [1][9]. Group 2: Refund Process and Electronic Reforms - The U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) announced a shift to electronic refunds starting February 6, which aims to streamline the refund process [3][12]. - This electronic system is expected to reduce errors and fraud, although it does not guarantee a fully automated refund process [3][12]. - The potential scale of refunds is unprecedented for the CBP, which typically manages large tax refunds but has not dealt with such a significant tariff refund scenario [3][12]. Group 3: Legal Actions and Market Reactions - Some companies, including Costco and others, have preemptively filed lawsuits to secure their rights to refunds, fearing that without judicial intervention, they may not recover the tariffs paid [6][14]. - Smaller companies are opting to sell their refund claims in a burgeoning secondary market at steep discounts, with some claims selling for as low as 9% of their face value [7][15]. - Companies are advised to maintain detailed transaction records and act quickly to ensure they can claim refunds if the Supreme Court rules in their favor [7][15]. Group 4: Industry Perspectives - Executives express skepticism about the likelihood of receiving refunds, citing concerns over government reluctance to return funds [1][10]. - The trade representative indicated that even if tariff revenues decline, the government could introduce new tariffs under different legal authorities to compensate for lost revenue [4][13]. - Companies are preparing for a potentially lengthy wait for refunds, with expectations that processing could take years [8][16].