大宗商品指数迎年度再平衡，交易商提前布局致黄金白银双双下跌

Core Viewpoint - The annual rebalancing of commodity indices has led to significant selling pressure on gold and silver, with expectations of billions of dollars in futures contracts being sold off in the coming days [1][6]. Group 1: Market Impact - Gold prices fell below $4,450 per ounce after a nearly 1% drop in the previous trading day, while silver prices experienced a decline of over 3% [1][4]. - Citigroup estimates that approximately $6.8 billion worth of silver futures contracts will be sold to meet index rebalancing requirements, representing 12% of the total open interest in Comex silver futures [1][6]. - The selling pressure on gold futures is expected to be similar to that of silver, driven by the increased weight of precious metals in commodity benchmark indices [1][6]. Group 2: Historical Context and Future Outlook - Last year, precious metals also faced selling due to index rebalancing, but it did not significantly impact market trends; however, this year, silver is facing greater selling pressure than in previous years [2][7]. - Analysts remain bullish on gold's long-term prospects, with expectations that geopolitical risks and high global fiscal deficits could push gold prices above $5,000 per ounce by mid-2026 [3][8]. - Central banks globally have been increasing their gold holdings, with a net addition of 45 tons in November, indicating strong official demand for gold [3][8]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - Traders are focusing on the upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll report, as weak data could increase bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts, which would benefit non-yielding precious metals [4][9]. - Silver experienced a remarkable annual increase of 150% last year, but supply constraints and market concerns about U.S. inventory outflows continue to exert pressure [4][9].