最高法院关税裁决或成2026年首只“黑天鹅” 千亿退税恐引发美债抛售风暴

Group 1 - The U.S. Supreme Court is set to rule on former President Trump's use of emergency tariff powers, which could significantly impact financial markets if the tariffs are overturned [1] - Analysts suggest that if tariffs are revoked, it may lead to increased government revenue, higher U.S. Treasury yields, and renewed volatility in the stock market [1][3] - The likelihood of the court maintaining the tariffs is currently estimated at 30% according to online prediction markets [1] Group 2 - If the court rules against the tariffs, it could boost profits for companies facing high import costs, with potential refunds to importers estimated between $150 billion to $200 billion [2] - Sectors such as retail, consumer goods, and electronics are expected to benefit from a potential stock market rebound if tariffs are lifted [2] - Some investors are reallocating funds towards small-cap stocks, anticipating that Federal Reserve actions will suppress 10-year Treasury yields and inject liquidity into the economy [2] Group 3 - A reduction in tariffs and subsequent government revenue loss may pressure U.S. Treasuries, leading to higher yields that could negatively affect the stock market [3] - The possibility of a refund ruling could prompt the Treasury to issue more U.S. debt [4] - Morgan Stanley estimates that annual tariff revenue could decline from approximately $350 billion to $250 billion, raising concerns about the U.S. fiscal outlook [5]