“谷子经济”正热，又一家卡牌要去IPO了

Core Insights - The article highlights the emergence of the "Guzi Economy" in China, particularly focusing on the collectible card market, which is entering a 2.0 phase characterized by asset collection. Suplay, a company specializing in high-end collectible cards, has submitted its listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, revealing significant growth potential in this emerging sector [1]. Company Overview - Suplay was founded in 2019 by Huang Wanjun, who previously worked at Huaxing Capital and co-founded Modian. Initially targeting the secondary market for blind box products, the company pivoted in 2020 to focus on the adult collectible card market, launching its own brand "Kakawo" [2]. - Kakawo differentiates itself from traditional trading cards aimed at children by focusing on high-end collectible cards priced over 10 yuan each, incorporating complex craftsmanship and collaborating with international grading institutions like PSA [2]. Market Position - As of 2024, Kakawo is the leading brand in China's collectible non-battle card market, holding a market share greater than the combined total of its second and third competitors. It is also the only Chinese brand among the top five globally [2]. - The popularity of Kakawo is evident, with specific cards, such as the Kakawo x CLOT 600% art collectible card, being sold for as high as 19,939 yuan, indicating strong demand and market interest [2]. Financial Performance - Suplay's revenue from its collectible card business has surged, with projections showing an increase from 146 million yuan in 2023 to 281 million yuan in 2024. By the first three quarters of 2025, revenue reached 283 million yuan, surpassing the total for the previous year [7]. - The adjusted net profit is expected to rise from a marginal profit in 2023 to 86.42 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, achieving a net profit margin close to 30% [7]. Growth Drivers - The company's growth is heavily reliant on a strong portfolio of IP licenses, including major global brands like Disney and Harry Potter, as well as exclusive licenses from significant shareholders like miHoYo, which includes popular game IPs such as Genshin Impact [7]. - The collectible card business contributes over 70% of Suplay's total revenue, showcasing the profitability of its business model [7]. Challenges and Risks - Despite its success, Suplay faces challenges, including a significant dependency on IP licenses, with proprietary IP revenue dropping to 4.1%. The company's core profits are closely tied to top-tier IP licenses [8]. - The reliance on distributor channels limits direct-to-consumer control, and as the company scales, the risk of inventory impairment is increasing [8]. Industry Outlook - The Chinese pan-entertainment card market is projected to reach 50 billion yuan by 2027, indicating a robust growth trajectory for the sector [14]. - Suplay has successfully carved out a niche in a market traditionally dominated by children's products, targeting adult collectors aged 18-35 with a unique blend of emotional value, collectible craftsmanship, and market liquidity expectations [14].