2026年一季度棉花价格或冲高回落

Core Viewpoint - Domestic cotton prices are expected to experience fluctuations and rise in Q4 2025, driven by cost support, improved demand expectations, and reduced supply pressure [1][3] Group 1: Price Trends - In Q4 2025, the average price of China's 3128B grade cotton is projected to be 14,570.51 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.46% from Q3 but an increase of 0.03% from Q4 2024 [1] - The highest price is expected to reach 15,077 yuan/ton by the end of December, while the lowest is anticipated at 14,188 yuan/ton in early October, resulting in a price range of 889 yuan/ton [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The cotton market is characterized by a strong supply and weak demand dynamic, with cotton spinning enterprises showing cautious purchasing attitudes [1][5] - As of the end of December, some cotton ginning factories have sold out their cotton, with most achieving over 70% sales, indicating a gradual decrease in market selling pressure [3] Group 3: Future Outlook - For Q1 2026, cotton prices are expected to continue fluctuating upwards before the Spring Festival, influenced by a tightening supply outlook due to a projected reduction in cotton planting area in Xinjiang [5][9] - However, the market may face downward pressure due to increased imports and a significant rise in cotton production, with expectations of commercial cotton stocks reaching a peak of 685.32 million tons in January 2026 [8][9] - The average price of 3128B grade cotton may rise to 15,500 yuan/ton before the Spring Festival, but a potential price correction is anticipated in March 2026, with prices possibly falling to 15,200 yuan/ton if demand does not meet expectations [9]